State Budget: Expenditures, Revenues, Deficit — What Do Experts Forecast?

Kazakhstan’s state budget spending once again exceeded revenues. In January–July of this year, the government earned 16.4 trillion tenge but spent 17.5 trillion tenge. According to the Ministry of Finance, the deficit amounted to more than 1.5 trillion tenge. This is slightly lower than in the same period of 2024, when the deficit exceeded 1.7 trillion tenge by the end of July.

At the same time, overall macroeconomic indicators this year show solid momentum: GDP grew by 9.3%, while industrial output increased by 6.9%. State budget revenues rose by 12.6% over the seven months, while expenditures were up only 9%.

Budget deficits are not new for Kazakhstan. The gap between revenues and expenditures has persisted for several consecutive years. In 2024, the deficit reached 3.6 trillion tenge — the highest level in recent years. The reduction of the shortfall this year is generally a positive signal.

At the same time, forecasts suggest that this level of deficit is not the limit. Under the baseline economic scenario, Kazakhstan’s state budget deficit is expected to reach 4.6 trillion tenge next year. These figures were presented by the Ministry of Finance at a government meeting in late August.

The budget forecast report indicates that starting in 2027 the deficit will gradually decline — first to 3.5 trillion tenge, then to 2.2 trillion tenge a year later. By 2029, the gap between spending and revenues could narrow to just 1 trillion tenge, with plans to reduce it to zero by 2030.

This scenario rests on strong revenue growth driven by tax collections and restrained spending ambitions. Notably, transfers from the National Fund of Kazakhstan to the state budget are planned to be reduced from 2.8 trillion to 2 trillion tenge annually by 2029. Whether these projections will be realized remains uncertain, as both key variables — revenues and expenditures — are highly dependent on external conditions.

Let us return to the present. The reality this year is that state budget expenditures continue to grow, though not at the pace seen in previous years. In 2023, annual spending rose by 24.3%; in 2024, by 13.3%; and in the first seven months of this year, as noted earlier, by 9%.

Several sectors of the economy have been the key drivers of this increase. Spending on social assistance and welfare rose by 374 billion tenge to 3.9 trillion tenge. Expenditures on education also grew, up 286 billion tenge to 4 trillion tenge, while spending on housing and utilities increased by 230 billion tenge to 1.1 trillion tenge.

One area that stands out is debt servicing. In January–July 2025, government debt expenditures jumped 19.1% year-on-year, reaching 2 trillion tenge.

Let us take a closer look at public debt. In January–July, this indicator (including government-guaranteed debt) reached a record 35.7 trillion tenge, or 68.5 billion US dollars. Compared to the same period in 2024, this represents an increase of 17.6%, or more than 5 trillion tenge.

The growth in public debt was driven by a substantial rise in domestic debt (up 4.9 trillion tenge), mainly due to the expansion of treasury obligations, as well as an increase in external debt (up 1.3 trillion tenge). The dynamics in external borrowing were linked to higher liabilities from Eurobonds (up 493 billion tenge), loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (up 409 billion tenge), and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (up 192 billion tenge).

In addition, over the same period, the debt of regional administrations rose by almost 421 billion tenge, or 22.3%. The total debt of akimats now stands at 2.3 trillion tenge.