According to the October 2025 report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy is expected to maintain its established hierarchy of leaders next year. However, its structure will differ significantly depending on the calculation method — by market prices or by purchasing power parity (PPP). These two indicators reflect different aspects of a country’s economic strength: nominal GDP represents the total value of a nation’s economy in US dollars at market exchange rates, while GDP based on PPP converts that same volume into international dollars, reflecting how much can be purchased domestically compared with the US. If local prices are lower than in the United States, the country’s GDP at PPP will appear higher, since the same amount of money buys more goods and services.
The United States, maintaining just over one-quarter of global output, will remain the world’s largest economy with a GDP of 30.6 trillion US dollars. It will be followed by China (19.4 trillion US dollars) and Germany (5 trillion US dollars). Next are Japan (4.3 trillion US dollars), India (4.1 trillion US dollars), the United Kingdom (4 trillion US dollars), France (3.4 trillion US dollars), Italy (2.5 trillion US dollars), Russia (2.5 trillion US dollars), and Canada (2.3 trillion US dollars).
When adjusted for price levels and purchasing power, the overall structure remains similar, though China and India gain relative advantage. In PPP terms, China will take the lead with a GDP of 41 trillion international dollars, surpassing the United States (30.6 trillion international dollars) by roughly one-third. India will rank third (17.7 trillion international dollars), far ahead of the remaining economies in the top ten. The world’s ten largest economies by PPP will also include Russia (7.1 trillion international dollars), Japan (6.8 trillion international dollars), Germany (6.2 trillion international dollars), Indonesia (5 trillion international dollars), Brazil (5 trillion international dollars), France (4.5 trillion international dollars), and the United Kingdom (4.5 trillion international dollars).
Thus, five emerging market economies — China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and Brazil — will be represented in the world’s top ten by PPP, along with several other rapidly growing economies close to entering the top tier (for instance, Mexico, ranked 13th, with a PPP GDP of 3.4 trillion international dollars). This underscores the long-term shift of global economic activity toward Asia and the Global South.
At the regional level, Kazakhstan is projected to rank 50th in the world by nominal GDP (300 billion US dollars) and 37th by PPP (912.6 billion international dollars) in 2025. The gap between these figures is explained by the lower domestic price levels for goods and services compared to developed countries, making the economy appear roughly three times larger when measured by PPP.
Among its neighbors, Kazakhstan will maintain a clear lead: Uzbekistan is forecast to rank 62nd by nominal GDP (137.5 billion US dollars) and 55th by PPP (473.5 billion international dollars), Belarus — 81st and 64th respectively, and Turkmenistan — 87th and 89th. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will remain on the periphery of the global ranking, though their PPP indicators (above 60 billion international dollars) will be nearly three times higher than their nominal figures.
As a result, Kazakhstan will account for more than 50% of the combined GDP of Central Asian countries, both in nominal and PPP terms, remaining the region’s principal economic hub — combining steady growth dynamics with moderate price levels and relatively strong domestic demand.
In terms of overall economic size, the United States, China, and India will firmly remain among global leaders. However, if GDP is measured per capita, the picture changes dramatically.
It is important to note that, according to forecasts, the world economy in 2025 will be shaped by several centers of power: the United States, China, and India together will account for nearly half of global GDP. Yet absolute figures do not necessarily reflect citizens’ well-being. When recalculated per capita in current prices, the United States will outperform almost all other nations, with GDP per person reaching 89.6 thousand US dollars. In China, the figure will be four times lower — 13.8 thousand US dollars, and in India it will fall below 3 thousand US dollars. At the same time, the United States will rank only eighth in the world in GDP per capita, while the leaders will be Liechtenstein (231.7 thousand US dollars), Luxembourg (146.8 thousand US dollars), and Ireland (129.1 thousand US dollars).
When adjusted for purchasing power parity, the hierarchy remains largely the same, but the leading countries’ figures increase noticeably. One exception will be Liechtenstein, where GDP per capita at PPP (201.1 thousand international dollars) will be lower than its nominal figure, influenced by the strong national currency (the Swiss franc) and the country’s high cost of living.
Despite this, Liechtenstein will still take the top spot in GDP per capita at PPP, followed by Singapore (157 thousand international dollars), Luxembourg (152 thousand international dollars), Ireland (147.9 thousand international dollars), and Macao (132.6 thousand international dollars). These small but highly developed economies rely on services, finance, and technology — sectors that generate the highest value added. For reference, the United States will rank 11th globally by GDP per capita at PPP.
The differences are particularly pronounced in Central Asia. By nominal GDP per capita, Kazakhstan, with a projected 14.7 thousand US dollars per person, will be roughly at the global average (14.6 thousand US dollars) but will significantly outperform its neighbors. For comparison: Turkmenistan’s GDP per capita will reach 10.8 thousand US dollars, Uzbekistan’s — only 3.6 thousand US dollars, Kyrgyzstan’s — 2.8 thousand US dollars, and Tajikistan’s — 1.6 thousand US dollars. Russia’s figure will be slightly higher at 17.4 thousand US dollars. Thus, in 2025, Kazakhstan’s nominal GDP per capita will be nearly four times higher than the regional average for Central Asia, confirming the country’s relative advantage in income levels and domestic demand. Compared to Russia, the gap will be much smaller, especially given that Kazakhstan’s economy is significantly smaller in absolute terms.
In terms of GDP per capita at PPP, Russia will also lead (49 thousand international dollars), while Kazakhstan (44.8 thousand international dollars) will closely follow. For comparison: Turkmenistan’s figure will amount to 22.9 thousand international dollars, Uzbekistan’s — 12.6 thousand international dollars, Kyrgyzstan’s — 8.9 thousand international dollars, and Tajikistan’s — 6.1 thousand international dollars.
Thus, Kazakhstan continues to strengthen its position in the region, closing the gap with more developed markets and gradually approaching Russia.
According to forecasts, the world’s lowest GDP per capita levels — both nominal and PPP — will be recorded in African countries. For example, in South Sudan, nominal GDP per capita will stand at 313.2 US dollars, while GDP per capita at PPP will reach 953.7 international dollars.
According to forecasts, the global economy will expand by 3.2% in 2025 — a rate close to the average of recent years. Global growth remains steady but balanced: developed economies are gradually slowing, while emerging Asian markets continue to show more dynamic recovery. Overall, global growth rates are expected to remain in the range of 3.1%–3.2% through 2030, indicating stable but non-accelerating development.
Among Central Asian countries, the highest growth this year is expected in Kyrgyzstan — 8%. It is followed by Tajikistan (7.5%) and Uzbekistan (6.8%). Both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are projected to maintain growth potential above 5% through the end of the decade.
In contrast, after a strong rebound in 2024 (4.3%), Russia will face a sharp slowdown — to 0.6% in 2025 and only 1.1% in subsequent years, reflecting the effects of sanctions, structural constraints, and reduced investment activity.
Kazakhstan’s outlook appears balanced: after accelerating from 4.8% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025, growth is expected to gradually stabilize at around 3.4% by the end of the decade.
Turkmenistan will maintain steady but moderate growth at 2.3% annually through 2030, reflecting its limited export potential and closed economic model.
The main driver of global economic growth is Asia — primarily China and India — rather than developed economies. In 2025, China’s economy is projected to grow by 4.8%, while India’s will expand by 6.5%. Although China’s growth is expected to slow to 3.4% by 2030, it will still outpace the global average. India’s growth rate will remain stable, ranging between 6.2% and 6.5%.
Europe, by contrast, is losing its role as an economic engine, turning into a slow-growth region with the risk of long-term stagnation. The situation in Germany appears particularly concerning: the economy contracted for two consecutive years (down 0.9% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024), and this year’s forecast calls for growth of only 0.2% — signaling a crisis in the industrial core of the European Union. Overall, the EU economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025, with the rate remaining around 1.4%–1.5% through 2030 — significantly below pre-crisis levels, following the onset of geopolitical tensions in Europe and the loss of cheap energy resources, which have been redirected at a discount to India and China.