Trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Iran has remained relatively modest in recent years by the standards of the country’s foreign trade and has been characterised by high volatility. By the end of 2025, bilateral trade totalled USD 430.2 million, compared to USD 340.3 million a year earlier. However, the figure still remains well below the levels seen in the middle of the previous decade, when trade turnover exceeded USD 600 million. Moreover, by the end of January–March 2026, bilateral trade had declined again, falling to USD 90.8 million from USD 129.5 million a year earlier. The decrease amounted to 29.9%.
Kazakhstan’s trade balance with Iran has become significantly less stable in recent years. While in 2015 exports from Kazakhstan exceeded imports by more than eight times, the gap later began to narrow rapidly. In 2023 and 2024, the trade balance even turned negative, as imports from Iran exceeded exports to the country. In 2023, Kazakhstan exported goods to Iran worth just USD 83.1 million, while imports from Iran reached USD 219.7 million. In 2024, exports amounted to USD 123.3 million, compared to imports of USD 217 million.
Only in 2025 did Kazakhstan return to a positive trade balance, with exports reaching USD 239.3 million and exceeding imports, which totalled USD 191 million. However, already in January–March 2026, the figures had almost equalised again: exports amounted to USD 46.2 million, while imports stood at USD 44.6 million.
Despite the region’s geographical proximity and transport potential, Iran’s share in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade remains very small. By the end of 2025, Iran accounted for just 0.3% of Kazakhstan’s total trade turnover, compared to 0.8%–1% in 2015–2016. Iran’s role in Kazakhstan’s exports has declined particularly sharply: while ten years ago the country accounted for up to 1.5% of exports, its share now stands at only around 0.3%. Changes in imports were less dramatic: after years of fluctuations, Iran’s share in Kazakhstan’s imports has remained within the range of 0.3%–0.4% in recent years.
A similar trend can be observed across the broader macro-region. In 2015, Iran accounted for just 3.5% of Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Asian countries outside the CIS. In turn, Iran’s share in Kazakhstan’s exports to Asian countries exceeded 5%. By 2025, these indicators had declined to 0.8% and 1%, respectively. At the same time, Iran’s share in imports from Asian countries changed far less significantly: after declining to 0.6%–0.8% in 2019–2021, it has remained at around 0.7%–0.9% in recent years.
Agricultural products continue to form the backbone of Kazakhstan’s exports to Iran. By the end of January–March 2026, barley remained the largest export category, amounting to USD 33 million, or more than half of all shipments. Kazakhstan also exported animal and vegetable fats and oils (USD 5.6 million), wheat (USD 3.5 million), textile products (USD 880.2 thousand), and rice (USD 56 thousand). As a result, the export structure remains relatively narrow and largely dependent on agricultural products and raw materials.
Imports from Iran appear more diversified. In January–March of this year, Kazakhstan mainly imported beverages (USD 2.8 million), paints and varnishes (USD 1.7 million), detergents (USD 877.6 thousand), cement (USD 617.9 thousand), and petroleum products (USD 605.6 thousand).
Additional pressure on bilateral trade in 2026 is being created by the tense situation in the Middle East. Rising geopolitical risks surrounding Iran, instability of transport routes, and the caution of international market participants are creating additional constraints for the country’s foreign trade. This is also affecting Kazakhstan, for which Iran remains one of the potential transit routes for access to maritime corridors and Middle Eastern markets. Amid the instability, some shipments are slowing, businesses are approaching new contracts more cautiously, and logistics risks continue to increase.
At the same time, the structure of Kazakhstan’s exports has changed little: despite an almost twofold decline in shipments, agricultural products and raw materials still form the core of exports. The situation with imports looks different. While construction materials dominated among the largest import categories last year, consumer goods have significantly strengthened their position this year. For example, imports of non-alcoholic beverages increased more than eightfold.
Despite occasional periods of growth, trade volumes between Kazakhstan and Iran remain significantly below the levels seen a decade ago. At the same time, Iran continues to play an important role as a market for Kazakhstan’s agricultural exports and as a supplier of a broad range of consumer and industrial goods. The future dynamics of bilateral trade will largely depend both on the economic environment and on developments in the Middle East, as well as the stability of regional logistics.